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US jobs see strong growth in June with unemployment down to 4.1%

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Hiring in the US defied expectations with 147,000 jobs added in June, according to the latest figures.

The gain was much bigger than the 110,000 additions many analysts had predicted, with government and healthcare the sectors driving the rise.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May, the Labor Department said.

However, concerns remain around hiring in the private sector, and analysts point to a growing caution among firms, with many employers hesitant to take on new staff or replace those who leave.

Job gains for April and May were also revised up by a combined total of 16,000.

Hiring for roles in the federal government, professional services, and manufacturing declined in June.

However, roles in state and local government education rose, with around 63,500 positions added, while healthcare and social assistance gained another 58,600 jobs.

Despite the unemployment rate declining, the number of long-term unemployed in the US increased by 190,000 to a total of 1.6 million people.

The monthly jobs report from the government is a closely-watched signal of economic health.

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Inflation complicates next month’s rate decision

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While the economy started this year strongly, Wednesday saw another example of a surprise to the markets in the wrong direction.

In May the economy slowed again, and now inflation has quickened faster than expected. It is expected to stay well above the Bank of England’s target level until autumn.

For consumers, still reeling from years of higher prices and a recent pickup in food prices, the new number is less a surprise, more the confirmation of their ordinary day-to-day challenges.

On top of that, and just as important for some people, the bounce in inflation complicates the Bank’s rate cut plan.

Investors have been treating it as pretty much nailed on that rates will come down again in August, from the current 4.25%.

Now there is definitely a sense of renewed caution.

A former rate setter at the Bank, the economist Andrew Sentance, even said it would be “irresponsible” for interest rates to be cut next month.

Expectations remain that the cut in August and another one later in the year will go ahead.

But the Bank will have to explain why it is looking beyond this current rise in inflation, into next year’s expected drop-back to the 2% target.

It will mean the return of old questions around whether the UK is more inflation-prone than other countries, for example because of increasing wage and tax costs being passed on in the form of higher prices.

A weakening jobs market is another part of the deliberations. The latest employment figures will be published on Thursday.

If, as expected, they show a continued fall in vacancies, then that strengthens the argument for going ahead with a cut in rates. Bloomberg is predicting a 4.9% unemployment rate, up from the 4.6% reported last month.

But as always it is important to keep all the figures in perspective.

True, other major economies have not seen a similar bounce in inflation. The eurozone’s latest inflation rate is just 2%. But inflation is nowhere near the highs of the energy crisis, and will come down as energy prices fall in the autumn.

Growth is definitely slowing, but we are not in recession, and the very latest activity figures suggest recovery in some sectors.

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US inflation rises as tariffs drive up prices

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Natalie Sherman

Business reporter, BBC News

Getty Images A hand selects an orange at a grocery storeGetty Images

US inflation jumped last month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs took hold, pushing up prices for items from clothing to coffee.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in the year to June, up from 2.4% the previous month, with prices rising at the fastest pace since February, the Labor Department said.

Higher energy and housing costs, such as rents, were the major drivers of the increase.

But the data also suggested that consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs, as some firms begin to pass along the costs of Trump’s new taxes on imports.

Coffee prices jumped 2.2% from May to June, while prices for citrus fruits climbed 2.3%. Toy prices rose 1.8%, appliance prices increased 1.9%, while clothing prices gained 0.4% – the first increase to hit the sector in months.

But the overall increase remained contained and came in largely within expectations, offset by declines in prices for new and used cars, airfare and hotel bookings.

“There is a trickle of what is likely tariff-induced inflation in some categories, particularly household appliances and furnishings,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.

“This trickle is likely to gain momentum in the coming months.”

The average effective tariff rate in the US has surged this year, as Trump imposed a 10% tax on most goods entering the country, hitting key items, such as steel and car with even higher levies.

Though he suspended some more aggressive plans, in recent weeks, he has said he is planning to raise tariffs on goods from most countries, with duties set to come into effect on 1 August.

The president has claimed that introducing tariffs will protect American businesses from foreign competition and also boost domestic manufacturing and jobs.

The White House has dismissed forecasts that the measures will lead to higher prices for Americans, arguing that companies and foreign exporters will absorb the costs.

That view is at odds with most economic forecasters, who have argued the US economy has been shielded so far because firms stocked up on many goods in advance.

Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said the latest figures were unlikely to settle the debate.

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Post Office could be owned by its postmasters, government says

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Lucy Hooker

Business reporter

Getty Images Man in dark jacket with dark hair walks past Post Office branchGetty Images

Ownership of the Post Office could put into the hands of its postmasters, the government has suggested, as it launched a public consultation over the future of the service.

The minister responsible, Gareth Thomas, said it was time for “a fresh vision” for the service, but said the government did not plan to reduce the number of branches.

The Post Office operates counters or shops in more than 11,500 locations around the country and is fully state-owned and subsidised by the taxpayer.

Plans for mutualisation have been under discussion for more than a decade, but were sidelined as the scandal around the wrongful conviction of sub-postmasters unfolded.

The government said it also wanted to transform the organisation’s culture in the wake of the scandal which saw hundreds of sub-postmasters wrongly accused of false accounting and theft at the branches they were running on the basis of data from faulty accountancy software.

The scandal was brought back into the spotlight last week after the public inquiry into what went wrong published its first report, focusing on the impact on sub-postmasters and their families.

“We all know, sadly, the the grim legacy… so this is about fixing the fundamental problems,” Thomas told the BBC.

The Post Office had to be transformed so that it was trusted by its postmasters as well as by the general public again, he said.

But he said he also wanted the 12-week consultation to start a national debate over how the organisation should be run in the future, including the options of mutual-ownership or a charter model like the BBC.

Post Office Minister Gareth Thomas in suit and tie, standing in front of a Post Office counter, with customer and staff in the background

Post Office Minister Gareth Thomas said the review was about fixing “fundamental problems”

The consultation includes a question over whether the Post Office should still be required to operate 11,500 branches. However, Thomas said the government believed the current size of the network was “broadly right” and did not foresee closures.

The minister also announced a further £118m to support the work already underway to deliver changes in the Post Office.

Future services

As well as the question of ownership, the government is asking for views on what services the Post Office should offer in future, with a particular focus on banking, as major lenders continue to close High Street branches.

Currently customers can use the Post Office to pay in and withdraw money from accounts at most banks.

They can buy foreign currency, pick up welfare benefit forms and payments, and submit passport applications. But the full range of services are only offered at larger sites.

Research published alongside the so-called Green Paper on the future of Post Office suggests it adds “social value” of £5.2bn per year to households and £1.3bn annually to small and medium sized businesses.

But the business has struggled to make a profit, relying on tens of millions of pounds of state subsidy, as customers posted fewer letters and turned to online services and other delivery operators, bypassing Post Office counters.

According to the Post Office, currently 99.7% of the population live within three miles of a Post Office and 4,000 of its branches are open seven days a week.

The Post Office has already announced it is shifting its last remaining standalone shops to the model that the majority are already run on, which grants franchise-holders the right to offer Post Office services alongside other retail services.

The government said it did not plan to pursue “potentially expensive” shifts in ownership structure until the Post Office had achieved “financial and operational stability”.

However, it floated two alternatives for longer-term change:

  • A joint-venture between the government and a sub-postmaster-owned mutual to run the Post Office
  • A charter model – as used for the BBC and universities – with the government setting out guiding principles but relinquishing its ownership role

The idea of shared-ownership was first raised in 2012 after the Post Office was split from the Royal Mail, the service that delivers post to the door.

Many smaller businesses already use mutual models, but the most well-known larger UK businesses run that way are the John Lewis Partnership and the Co-operative.

In mutually-run organisations, staff are more closely involved with decision-making and have a greater stake in the performance of the business.

Last year, Thomas told parliament nearly half of branches were not profitable or made only a small profit from Post Office business. That has led to a stagnation in pay for postmasters.

Rose Marley, chief executive of Co-operatives UK, a body that promotes the mutual ownership of businesses said that employee-owned businesses were proven to be more productive and in this case the switch could be “genuinely transformative”.

She said the Horizon scandal would have been much less likely under shared ownership.

“A stakeholder-led Post Office would be far better placed to surface concerns early and protect those on the front line,” she said.

“It would hardwire in a culture of transparency and shared responsibility.”

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